Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 9.295642e-05 0.000110 0.000128 0.000149 0.000172 0.000196 0.000224
2024-12-29 6.996800e-05 0.000092 0.000118 0.000149 0.000185 0.000225 0.000273
2025-01-05 5.776324e-05 0.000082 0.000112 0.000149 0.000193 0.000244 0.000305
2025-01-12 4.513310e-05 0.000070 0.000102 0.000144 0.000195 0.000255 0.000330
2025-01-19 3.967765e-05 0.000066 0.000101 0.000147 0.000206 0.000277 0.000366
2025-01-26 3.131785e-05 0.000057 0.000092 0.000141 0.000205 0.000283 0.000384
2025-02-02 2.706909e-05 0.000053 0.000090 0.000143 0.000213 0.000300 0.000413
2025-02-09 2.260887e-05 0.000048 0.000086 0.000141 0.000216 0.000311 0.000436
2025-02-16 2.067940e-05 0.000047 0.000087 0.000146 0.000229 0.000334 0.000473
2025-02-23 1.800132e-05 0.000044 0.000085 0.000148 0.000236 0.000349 0.000501
2025-03-02 1.423321e-05 0.000038 0.000078 0.000142 0.000233 0.000352 0.000514
2025-03-09 1.164533e-05 0.000035 0.000075 0.000139 0.000234 0.000360 0.000532
2025-03-16 9.449740e-06 0.000031 0.000072 0.000139 0.000239 0.000373 0.000559
2025-03-23 7.926019e-06 0.000029 0.000070 0.000141 0.000247 0.000392 0.000593
2025-03-30 6.254137e-06 0.000026 0.000067 0.000139 0.000250 0.000403 0.000618
2025-04-06 4.569321e-06 0.000023 0.000062 0.000135 0.000249 0.000409 0.000635
2025-04-13 3.890231e-06 0.000022 0.000062 0.000138 0.000259 0.000429 0.000672
2025-04-20 2.652976e-06 0.000019 0.000057 0.000133 0.000255 0.000431 0.000684
2025-04-27 2.093335e-06 0.000017 0.000056 0.000134 0.000262 0.000446 0.000715
2025-05-04 1.521606e-06 0.000015 0.000054 0.000132 0.000264 0.000457 0.000738
2025-05-11 1.332689e-06 0.000015 0.000055 0.000137 0.000277 0.000481 0.000781
2025-05-18 1.026455e-06 0.000014 0.000054 0.000138 0.000283 0.000497 0.000812
2025-05-25 5.854561e-07 0.000012 0.000050 0.000133 0.000279 0.000497 0.000822